Ice Out Dates

Lake Nipissing Ice Free Dates Statistics


Statistical Analysis for Central Tendency of Lake Nipissing Ice-free Dates 
Updated April 29, 2020 - Dave Minden

Dates were converted to days after March 31. (For example May 6 is 36 days after March 31.)
 

  • The overall average date is 28.4 days after March 31, thus April 28. (Previously calculated at 28.1)

  • The median (middle value of ranked dates) is also April 28.

  • The standard deviation is plus or minus 8.9 (or 9) days. 

  • The average range lies between April 19 and May 7

The "average range" is by definition the statistical range between +1 and -1 standard deviations and contains 68% of all dates. Statistically, the "best guesses" for ice-free dates are between April 19 and May 7, with April 28 the best guess with least possible error.

The overall average date since the initial calculations has changed slightly from 28.1 to 28.4 days. Over the last 10 years (2011-2020) the average has changed from 28.4 to 31.6, showing a later average ice-free date by about 3 days. Global climate change and global warming would suggest there should be an earlier, not later, average ice-free date; but over the last several years, the central Ontario region has been subjected to periods of very frigid conditions brought about by changes in wind patterns and the “polar vortex”. This may account for the later ice-out dates.

THE ICE IS OFF OF LAKE NIPISSING

Posted April 27, 2020

North Bay Nugget formally announces ice is off of Nipissing

Read the full story here

New - Get a Real-Time Satellite View of Lake Nipissing to see if the ice is out HERE.

Ice-out Dates From 1901

 

The Nugget has recorded the annual departure of ice from Lake Nipissing since 1901. The earliest that all of Lake Nipissing (85,870 ha) was reported clear of ice was April 3, 1945. The latest was May 19, 1926.

 

2020 - April 27 

2019 - May 8
2018 - May 14
2017 - April 21
2016 - May 5
2015 - May 5
2014 - May 14
2013 - May 4
2012 - April 11
2011 – April 27
2010 - April 8
2009 - April 28
2008 - April 26
2007 - April 24
2006 - April 24
2005 - May 1
2004 - April 25
2003 - May 2
2002 - April 23
2001 - April 25
2000 - April 22
1999 - April 18
1998 - April 23
1997 - May 9
1996 - May 11
1995 - April 27
1994 - April 30
1993 - May 5
1992 - May 11
1991 - April 28
1990 - May 2
1989 - May 8
1988 - April 27
1987 - April 22
1986 - April 27
1985 - May 5
1984 - April 24
1983 - May 4
1982 - May 6
1981 - April 13
1980 - May 5
1979 - May 7
1978 - May 9
1977 - April 25
1976 - April 23
1975 - May 12
1974 - May 5
1973 - April 23
1972 - May 16
1971 - May 9
1970 - May 2
1969 - April 28
1968 - April 18
1967 - April 24
1966 - April 26
1965 - May 11
1964 - April 28
1963 - April 21
1962 - April 26
1961 - May 4
1960 - April 30
1959 - April 29
1958 - April 19
1957 - April 30
1956 - May 9
1955 - April 19
1954 - April 21
1953 - April 13
1952 - April 28
1951 - April 19
1950 - May 6
1949 - April 24
1948 - April 20
1947 - May 2
1946 - April 4
1945 - April 3 - earliest ever recorded
1944 - May 4
1943 - May 11
1942 - April 26
1941 - April 24
1940 - May 4
1939 - May 7
1938 - April 24
1937 - May 5
1936 - April 29
1935 - April 29
1934 - May 7
1933 - April 25
1932 - April 30
1931 - April 25
1930 - May 3
1929 - April 17
1928 - May 11
1927 - April 20
1926 - May 19 - latest ever recorded
1925 - April 28
1924 - April 17
1923 - May 16
1922 - April 25
1921 - April 13
1920 - April 21
1919 - April 21
1918 - April 30
1917 - May 3
1916 - April 29
1915 - April 27
1914 - April 28
1913 - April 23
1912 - April 21
1911 - May 8
1910 - April 6
1909 - May 13
1908 - May 5
1907 - May 8
1906 - April 29
1905 - April 26
1904 - May 4
1903 - April 19
1902 - April 20
1901 - April 27

Lake Nipissing Ice Free Dates Statistics

 

Statistical Analysis for Central Tendency of Lake Nipissing Ice-free Dates 
Updated May 17, 2014


Dates were converted to days after March 31. (For example May 6 is 36 days after March 31.)
 
The overall average date is 28.1 days after March 31, thus April 28.
The median (middle value of ranked dates) is also April 28.
  
The standard deviation is plus or minus 8.9 (or 9) days. The "average range" is by definition the statistical range between +1 and -1 standard deviations and contains 68% of all dates. The average range lies between April 19 and May 7.

Statistically, the "best guesses" for ice-off dates are between April 19 and May 7, with April 28 in the middle.

Since the year 2000, there have been 4 ice-outs after April 28 and 9 before, and 1 actually on April 28. Despite the very cool and late spring in 2014, there is a trend towards earlier than average ice-out dates. The average date has shifted slightly earlier from 28.4 to 28.1 days after March 31.

 
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